1960～2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势  

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FUTURE TREND OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN DURING 1960 TO 2010

作　　者：潘欣[1] 尹义星[1] 王小军[2,3] PAN Xin YIN Yi-xing WANG Xiao-jun(College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210029, China Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年第3期436-444,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671022);江苏省普通高校自然科学研究资助项目(15KJB170014);中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M531384);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(1301136C)~~

摘　　要：本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明:(1)长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量(PAV)、简单日降水强度(PINT)、强降水贡献率(PQ95)、强降水阈值(PF95)、最大1日-10日降水量(PX1D-PX10D)基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。(2)PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。(3)未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。(4)遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。In this paper, no-missing daily precipitation data during 1960-2010 from uniformly distributed stations in the Yangtze River Basin were used, and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation were investigated with the help of trend and mutation analysis, R/S analysis and hydrologic frequency analysis method. The main results are as follows：（1） The regional average of PAV, PINT, PQ95, PF95 and PX1D-PX10 D has an upward trend, and the values of the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches, and the changes of the indices in the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches.（2） The spatial distribution of PAV and PF95 is similar, but it shows negative trend in the middle and positive trend on the both sides for PAV, while it shows positive trend in the middle and negative on the both sides for PF95; The spatial distribution of PINT and PQ95 trend is similar, showing upward trend in most parts of the basin, but downward trend in the northwest of the basin. On the other hand, with the increase of duration from PX1 D to PX10 D, the areas where extreme precipitation decreases have significantly expanded while the area where extreme precipitation increases have significantly narrowed.（3） The extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin will remain the current trend in the future, and a majority of the extreme precipitation indices will on the increase in the future which will lead to the increase of flood risk in the basin.（4）Hydrological frequency analysis of extreme precipitation PX1 D in Suining Station and PX10 D in Anhua Station showed that design precipitation calculated based on the whole data is not sate. The difference will be larger with the increase of return periods, so new methods to estimate design precipitation should be investigated.

关 键 词：长江流域 极端降水 HURST指数 水文频率分析 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]