基于层次筛选的风险评价方法在油气集输系统中的应用  

Research on Risk Evaluation on Oil Gas Gathering and Transportation System Based on Multi-layer Risk Factors Screening

作　　者：康健[1] 王雨涛[1] 张璐[1] 袁天宇[1] 陈泽强[1] 詹润发 

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院安全生产工程技术研究院,北京102617

出　　处：《北京石油化工学院学报》2017年第1期46-50,共5页Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology

基　　金：北京石油化工学院大学生研究训练[URT]计划项目(16032082001/164);北京石油化工学院科技创新资助项目(15031862005/016)

摘　　要：油气集输系统中的风险因素数量庞杂,各风险因素相互关联,且对系统整体的安全功能作用不同。因此,对风险因素进行层次筛选是提高风险评价效率和准确性的有效途径。首先采用事故树分析(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)系统辨识风险因素,根据Delphi方法进行风险因素初次筛选,并对筛选出的风险因素进行聚簇。然后,利用模糊认知图(Fuzzy Cognition Maps,FCM)对风险因素进行二次筛选,基于权重排序得到风险评价因素集。最后,利用模糊综合评价方法(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation,FCE)进行风险等级的定量计算,并对风险评价方法过程进行了分析设计。结果表明,该研究提高了油气集输系统风险评估工作的科学性,对制定较强针对性的风险控制策略具有重要意义。Risk evaluation is a significant way to ensure the safety of oil gas gathering and trans portation station. Traditional safety evaluation methods are mostly prone to focusing on the overall grasp of risk factors. However, due to numerous risk factors deriving from various devices, safety evaluations without risk relative priority queues will inevitably gloss over particularities of each evaluation object, thus a trustless evaluation result. This paper aims to develop a safety evaluation methodology based on multi-level risk factors screening by combing qualitative and quantitative analysis, and display the screening process in a succinct and computer aided way that may be expected to overcome the limitations mentioned above. To the end, Fault Tree Analysis （FTA） is used to explicitly determine the risk factors, where risk factors are cultured based on the classification of equipment, and the first-level screening is conducted by using the Delphi method. Then, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps （FCM） is proposed to carry on the second-level screening according to the weight distribution opinions. Finally, considering modern industrial engineering as a complex system, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation （FCE） is employed to calculate the overall safety level.

关 键 词：层次筛选 风险评价 模糊认知图 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]