郑州市尖岗水库降雨量演变特征及趋势分析  

Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Rainfall Precipitation in Jiangang Reservoir of Zhengzhou City

作　　者：王新[1] 徐建新[1] 雷宏军[1] 张伟杰[1] 陈学凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,郑州450045

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2017年第2期44-47,共4页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：郑州市尖岗水库上游来水量少,水源补给主要靠大气降水,研究尖岗水库流域降水量变化规律对水库防汛及水资源合理开发利用具有重要意义。以尖岗水库水文站1970~2015年降水资料数据为依据,用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法和R/S分析方法分别对尖岗站年际、季节、汛期和非汛期的降水量变化趋势和持续性特征进行分析,对未来降水量变化趋势进行预测。结果表明,尖岗水库春季和非汛期降水趋势未来呈下降趋势、表现强持续性(Ⅳ级);尖岗水库夏季、秋季、冬季、汛期降水趋势未来呈下降趋势、表现弱持续性(Ⅰ级);尖岗水库全年降水趋势未来呈下降趋势、表现较弱持续性(Ⅱ级)。建议在汛期做好防洪度汛的前提下及时安全蓄水,减少汛期的无效弃水,将洪水有效加以利用。The water supply mainly comes from local precipitation,the upstream inflow of Jiangang reservoir is small. The research on the change of precipitation in the Jiangang reservoir is great significance for the rational development and utilization water resources and control flood. The Mann-Kendall noparametric rank correlation test method and the R/S method were used to analyze the future trend and persistence of the annual,seasonal,flood and non-flood season of the Jiangang reservoir that based on the daily precipitation data from 1970 to 2015 in Jiangang hydrological station.Then predict the future trend of precipitation. Results showed that precipitation trend would slow down in the future of the annual,seasonal,flood and non-flood season of the reservoir in different period. And the persistence of the Spring and non-flood is strong（ Ⅳ）,Summer,autumn,winter,flood is weak（Ⅰ） and Annual is less weak（Ⅱ）. So,under the premise of flood control the water storage in the flood season should be kept in control well with reducing the flood discharge and utilizing the flood resources effectively.

关 键 词：降雨量 MANN-KENDALL R/S分析 趋势分析 郑州市尖岗水库 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]