四种典型空间环境下LEO预报精度分析  

Accuracy Analysis of LEO Forecast under Four Typical Space Environment

作　　者：刘卫[1] 王荣兰[1] 刘四清[1] 龚建村[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家空间科学中心,北京100190

出　　处：《载人航天》2017年第2期177-184,共8页Manned Spaceflight

摘　　要：针对复杂变化的空间环境,依据地磁指数Ap和射电辐射流量指数F10.7对空间环境简要分为4类。统计近4个太阳活动周各类型事件,发现扰动型(01、10和11型)事件比例有下降趋势。选取高度约350 km的载人航天轨道(天宫一号),以星载GPS数据作为"测量数据"和"参考轨道"分析其在四种典型空间环境事件前后轨道预报精度和解算阻力系数C_d的变化情况。解算的C_d在00型和10型空间环境下没有明显变化,而在01型和11型空间环境下变化明显,表现为磁扰前1 d下降,磁扰当天及扰后1 d急剧增加。该方法对精细化分析预报误差具有一定的参考意义。According to the geomagnetic indices and solar F10. 7 index, the complicated space environ-ment can be briefly divided into four typical types namely 00, 01, 10 and 11 type. The statistics show that the ratio of disturbance （01, 10 and 11） events is on a downward trend in recent four solar cy-cles. With TianGong-1 onboard GPS data as the ＂measured data＂and ＂reference orbit＂, the predic-tion accuracy and the solved satellite drag coefficient Cd associated with the four typical space environ-ments were analyzed. There was no significant change of the solved Cd under 00 and 10 type space en-vironments, but under 01 and 11 type space environments,Cd showed a decline 1 d before the magnet-ic disturbance, and a sharp increase on the magnetic disturbance day and1day after. This method has some reference value for the precise analysis of the prediction error or covariance evolution.

关 键 词：空间环境 GPS数据 预报误差 阻力系数 

分 类 号：V474.3[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]