近50a黄淮海地区降水演变规律  

Precipitation Variation in Huang-Huai-Hai Region in the Recent 50 Years

作　　者：尹军[1] 吴深 杨志勇[1] 袁喆[3] 袁勇[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]济南市卧虎山水库管理处,山东济南250115 [3]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010 [4]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《人民黄河》2017年第4期11-16,共6页Yellow River

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03)

摘　　要：基于ArcGIS平台分析了黄淮海地区1961—2011年生长季降水量和暴雨的时空变化特征,研究指标包括面生长季降水量、生长季降水质心空间位置以及暴雨中心笼罩面积。结果表明:1961—2011年,黄淮海地区生长季降水整体上呈减小趋势,生长季降水量的倾向率为-8.4 mm/10 a;近50 a来,黄淮海地区雨带整体上呈较明显的南移态势,但近10 a雨带呈北抬的特点;强降水事件特性在20世纪80年代发生转变,尤其是近10 a连续暴雨事件影响范围增大。Based on ArcGIS platform,temporal and spatial variation of precipitation in growth season（April October）and rainstorms（≥50mm/d）of Huang-Huai-Hai region was analyzed. Assessment indexes include areal precipitation in the growth season,centroid position of pre-cipitation in the growth season and cover area of rainstorm. The results show that precipitation in the growth season decreases to some degree inHuang-Huai-Hai region during 1961-2011 period with a slope of-8.4 mm/10 a. During the recent 50 years,the rain belt of Huang-Huai-Hai re-gion has an obvious movement trend towards south,while during the recent 10 years,the rain belt begins to move toward north. Heavy precipita-tion event shifts sharply in the 1980 s,especially in the recent 10 years,the impacted area of continuous rainstorm has been increased a lot.

关 键 词：时空变化 暴雨 生长季降水量 黄淮海地区 1961—2011年 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]