我国布鲁菌病发病趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction on incidence trend of brucellosis in China

作　　者：陶长余[1] 章士军[1] 陈郁[1] 

机构地区：[1]南通市疾病预防控制中心病媒生物防制科,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《职业与健康》2017年第3期379-380,385,共3页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的分析和预测中国布鲁菌病(简称布病)发病率趋势,为制定公共卫生政策提供参考。方法采用线性回归方法分析2005—2015年中国布病发病率变化趋势;建立GM(1,1)模型,并对未来3年布病发病率进行预测。结果中国布病发病率呈快速上升趋势,APC值为11.88%(t=11.88,P<0.01);灰色GM(1,1)模型表达式为x_(k+1)=15.798 2e^((0.105 65k))-14.264 8,后验差比值为0.24,小误差概率为100%,利用该模型预测未来3年发病率(/10万)分别为5.05、5.61、6.24。结论中国布病发病率呈持续上升趋势,须加强健康教育、畜牧检疫、人群监测等措施,遏制上升趋势。[Objective]To analyze and predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in China,provide the basis for formulating public health policies. [Methods]The linear regression method was used to analyze the tendency of brucellosis incidence in China from2005-2015. The grey model GM（1,1）was applied to forecast the brucellosis incidences in the coming three years.[Results]The brucellosis incidence rose rapidly in China,and the APC was 11.88%（t=11.88,P〈0.01）. The formula of the GM（1,1）model was xk＋1=15.798 2e^（0.105 65k）-14.264 8,with the posterior error ratio being 0.24 and the small error probability being 100%. Accordingly,the model was applied to predict the brucellosis incidences in the coming three years,which was 5.05/lakh,5.61/lakh and 6.24/lakh,respectively. [Conclusion]The brucellosis incidence is continually rising in China. The relevant measures such as health education,animal quarantine and population surveillance should be taken to restrain the escalating trend of the brucellosis incidence.

关 键 词：布鲁菌病 发病率 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]