中国海船船员景气指数模型构建  

Establishing of Chinese Vessel Crew Index Model

作　　者：程紫来[1] 张哲辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部水运科学研究所物流工程技术研究中心,北京100088

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2017年第1期60-65,72,共7页Transport Research

基　　金：中华人民共和国海事局海事科技项目(2013-21)

摘　　要：为研究我国海船船员市场现状与走势,更好地为航运企业日常运输生产、船员培训机构教学与考试提供服务,协助政府管理部门更好地履行监控、管理职能并验证和评价航运政策实施的效果,基于中国海船船员数据库中适当的经济指标,研究制定了中国海船船员景气指数模型。首先采用数学统计的方法将各项指标要素汇总,编制了出海船船员景气指数。然后,衍生出海船船员需求量统计、海船船员考试统计、海船船员证书发放统计、海船船员有效证书统计、海船船员服务时间统计五项子指数。最后,结合我国海船船员数据库2013年第4季度至2014年第3季度的船员基础数据,对中国海船船员景气指数模型进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国海船船员景气指数模型可较为有效地反映我国海船船员市场的运行状态和发展趋势。In order to study the present situation and trend of the vessel crew market, to provide betterservices for the daily transportation of the shipping transportation enterprise and the teaching and exami-nation of the crew training institution, and to assist the government administration department to betterimplement its monitoring and managing functions and to evaluate the shipping policy, a Chinese vesselcrew index model was developed by choosing some proper economical indicators from the Chinese seafar-ers′ database. This model consists of the vessel crew index itself and five sub-index： the vessel crew re-quirement, the vessel crew examination, the vessel crew certificate issue, the vessel crew valid certifi-cate, and the vessel crew serving time. Combining the data from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the thirdquarter of 2014 in Chinese seafarers′ database, the Chinese vessel crew index model was analyzed empir-ically.The result of test shows that the Chinese vessel crew index model is able to reflect the running sta-tus and developing trend of the Chinese vessel crew market efficiently.

关 键 词：中国海船船员 景气指数 模型构建 航运市场 海船船员数据库 

分 类 号：U675.85[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]