Projection of China's Near- and Long-Term Climate in a New High-Resolution Daily Downscaled Dataset NEX-GDDP  

作　　者：Yun BAO Xinyu WEN 

机构地区：[1]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University [2]Troop 61741,People's Liberation Army of China

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2017年第1期236-249,共14页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41130105,41130962,and 41005035);Beijing Young Elite Foundation(YETP0005)

摘　　要：The projection of China＇s near- and long-term future climate is revisited with a new-generation statistically down- scaled dataset, NEX-GDDP （NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections）. This dataset presents a high-resolution seamless climate projection from 1950 to 2100 by combining observations and GCM results, and re- markably improves CMIP5 hindcasts and projections from large scale to regional-to-local scales with an unchanged long-term trend. Three aspects are significantly improved： （1） the climatology in the past as compared against the ob- servations; （2） more reliable near- and long-term projections, with a modified range of absolute value and reduced inter-model spread as compared to CMIP5 GCMs; and （3） much added value at regional-to-local scales compared to GCM outputs. NEX-GDDP has great potential to become a widely-used high-resolution dataset and a benchmark of modem climate change for diverse earth science communities.The projection of China＇s near- and long-term future climate is revisited with a new-generation statistically down- scaled dataset, NEX-GDDP （NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections）. This dataset presents a high-resolution seamless climate projection from 1950 to 2100 by combining observations and GCM results, and re- markably improves CMIP5 hindcasts and projections from large scale to regional-to-local scales with an unchanged long-term trend. Three aspects are significantly improved： （1） the climatology in the past as compared against the ob- servations; （2） more reliable near- and long-term projections, with a modified range of absolute value and reduced inter-model spread as compared to CMIP5 GCMs; and （3） much added value at regional-to-local scales compared to GCM outputs. NEX-GDDP has great potential to become a widely-used high-resolution dataset and a benchmark of modem climate change for diverse earth science communities.

关 键 词：statistical downscaling climate projection climate change CMIP5 NEX-GDDP 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435