城镇化与产业发展适应性的实证研究——以新疆兵团为例  

THE EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE ADAPTABILITY OF URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN XINJIANG PRODUCTION AND CONSTRUCTION GROUP

作　　者：倪超军[1] 马雪琴[1] Ni Chaojun Ma Xueqing(Shihezi University Business School Wujiaqu 831300, China Shihezi University Corps Financial Development Research Center, Wujiaqu 831300, China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学商学院,新疆五家渠831300

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2016年第6期82-89,共8页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：2013年兵团社科基金项目"兵团少数民族聚居团场发展研究"(13YB06);2012年国家社科基金项目"对口援疆政策与新疆少数民族受益状况研究"(12CMZ047);2012年石河子大学人文社科中青年人才培育基金项目"提升少数民族聚居团场自我发展能力研究"(RWSK12-Y07);2015年兵团金融发展研究中心课题"丝绸之路经济带背景下金融支持兵团外向型产业发展研究"(BTJR201504)

摘　　要：城镇化是伴随工业化发展,非农产业在城镇集聚、农村人口向城镇集中的自然历史过程,是国家现代化的重要标志。新疆生产建设兵团是一个具有特殊管理体制的组织,在新疆经济社会发展中处于重要地位和作用。兵团城镇化发展道路具有一定的特殊性,对于稳定新疆、建设新疆具有重要的现实意义和战略意义。由于历史、自然等因素的影响,兵团产业发展表现出明显的"农垦"特色,第一产业在兵团GDP中占比较大,这是兵团产业发展的显著性特征之一。工业发展滞后,导致兵团长期徘徊于农业经济状态,与全国发达地区的差距越来越大。第三产业比重虽然有所增加,但是内部结构不合理。文章运用VAR模型,对新疆兵团城镇化与产业发展的适应性进行实证研究。研究结论,第一产业对城镇化一直是负向的冲击作用,兵团第二产业发展能力依然很弱,未能实现对城镇化的有效促进,反而"拖累"减缓兵团城镇化的发展,第三产业对城镇化有明显的正向冲击作用。Xinjiang Production and Construction Group（ XPGG） is a special management system,which plays an important role in Xinjiang＇ s economic and social development. The urbanization of XPGG has important realistic and strategic significance for Xinjiang＇ s stabilizing and construction. Due to historical,natural and other factors,XPCG＇s industry showed obvious ＂ reclamation＂ characteristics,the significant features of the corps industry development was that the first industry in the Corps of GDP was large. XPGG＇s under development led to the Corps remaining on the agricultural economy for a long term,and the gap with developed regions become greater. The proportion of the third industry increased but the internal structure was not reasonable. The paper analyzed the adaptability of urbanization and industrial development in XPGG using the VAR model. It concluded that the first industry had a negative impact onthe urbanization,the second industry development ability was still very weak and failed to effectively promote urbanization,the third industry had significant positive impact on urbanization.

关 键 词：产业发展 城镇化 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F321