灰色Verhulst与等维新息组合模型在中长期负荷预测中的研究  

Research on Grey Verhulst and Equal Dimension New Information Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting

作　　者：林天祥[1] 张宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学,福州350116

出　　处：《电气技术》2017年第3期42-46,共5页Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：本文针对中长期电力负荷预测使用的历史数据较少且影响因素较多的特点,提出了一种线性灰色组合模型。该模型将灰色Verhulst模型与等维新息灰色理论线性组合,充分发挥了灰色Verhulst模型所需数据少、不受特定负荷数据以及等维新息灰色理论影响,保持数据原有维数、保证最优信息量和动态预测的优势。算例结果表明,该预测模型精度较高,具有实用性。The paper proposes a linear grey combined model for the medium and long term power load forecasting which has the characteristics of less historical data and more influencing factors.The model is a linear combination of the grey Verhulst model and the equal dimension new information grey theory.The model gives full play to the advantages of the grey Verhulst model which needs less data and is not affected by the specific load data.The model also takes advantages of the equal dimension new information grey theory ,which can maintain the original dimension of the data,guarantee the optimal information quantity, achieve dynamic prediction.The results show that the model has high accuracy and practicability.

关 键 词：灰色VERHULST模型 等维新息灰色理论 组合负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]