基于改进灰色多层次评价的应急预案实施效果评价模型  

Research on Implementation Effect Evaluation Model of Emergency Plans Based on Improved Multi-level and Grey Evaluation Method

作　　者：张英菊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院,广东深圳518046 [2]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《湘潭大学自然科学学报》2017年第1期114-118,共5页Natural Science Journal of Xiangtan University

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(13CGL134)

摘　　要：在改进灰色多层次评价方法的基础上,建立了应急预案实施效果评价模型,并辅以算例对模型进行了验证.改进主要体现在:一是引入专家权重,对AHP群决策中不同专家确定的指标权重进行加权修正;二是构建了基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权法计算指标权重,避免了传统AHP过于依赖专家的不足;三是在综合评价的基础上,提出计算评价对象单项指标得分的方法.改进后的方法更加严谨,方法体系本身更加完善.根据模型计算结果,可以有针对性地对应急预案进行改进,提升其实施效果.The paper built an evaluation model for plan implementation based on improved multi-level and grey evaluation method and provided a detailed calculation example to prove its practicability.The improvement mainly reflected in three aspects.Firstly,it corrected indicators weight which were got from AHP group decision method by calculating expert weights.Secondly,it built a combination weighting method based on AHP and entropy weight method to avoid the shortcomings of traditional AHP,namely reliance on experts excessively.Thirdly,it proposed a method to calculate evaluation score for individual indicators.According to the model calculations,it can be targeted to improve contingency plans to enhance its effectiveness.

关 键 词：灰色多层次评价 应急预案 AHP法 熵权法 

分 类 号：O224[理学—运筹学与控制论]