应用捕获-标记-再捕获法评估济南市户籍居民死亡登记漏报水平  

Capture-mark-recapture analysis on the under-registration rate of mortality surveillance program in Jinan

作　　者：周林[1] 刘守钦[1] 张军[1] 王莹[1] 韩京[1] 刘盈君[1] 

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,250021

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2017年第4期482-485,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的 应用捕获-标记-再捕获法（capture-mark-recapture，CMR）评估2013－2014年济南市居民死亡登记漏报水平。方法 采用分层整群随机抽样方法，按照城乡分层抽取济南市2个区、3个县，从抽中的每个县（区）随机抽取3个乡镇（街道），每个乡镇（街道）随机抽取8个村（居委会）。通过民政、公安、妇幼、村医、村干部、社区居委会搜集辖区内2013年1月1日至2014年12月31日的户籍人口死亡名单，与死因监测数据进行比对，计算漏报率。结果 本次调查共收集济南市2013－2014年死亡病例2 903例，死因监测登记同期死亡病例3 113例，CMR估计死亡病例3 772例（95%CI：3 741～3 802），死因监测漏报率为17.46%。不同类别的漏报率比较，2013、2014年漏报率分别为19.29%、15.57%（χ2 =8.92，P〈 0.01）。城区、农村漏报率分别为20.91%、11.93%（χ2=47.35，P〈 0.01）。男性、女性漏报率分别为17.87%、16.98%（χ2 =0.48，P〉 0.05），〈 5岁组、≥5岁组漏报率分别为21.57%、17.45%（χ2 =0.03，P〉 0.05）。结论 济南市死因监测存在一定程度的漏报，应用CMR可以评估漏报水平，建议定期开展漏报调查，校正常规监测数据，并针对发现的漏报重点环节进行改进。Objective To evaluate the under-registration rate related to mortality surveillance program in Jinan city, from 2013 to 2014, using the capture-mark-recapture method. Methods Under the stratified cluster random sampling method, samples were stratified, according to urban and rural areas. Two districts and three counties were chosen, with three towns/streets in each county/district and eight villages/communities in each township/street, randomly selected. With the participation of departments as civil affairs, public security, maternal/child institutions and community committees as well as individuals as village doctors and community leaders, a list of deaths from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014 was collected and compared to the National Mortality Surveillance System on the rates related to under-registration. Results A total of 2 903 records on deaths were collected from 2013 to 2014,while 3 113 deaths were reported in the surveillance system of the same period. 3 772 （95%CI：3 741-3 802） deaths were estimated by the capture-mark-recapture method. The two-year total under-registration rate was 17.46%. The under-registration rates in 2013 and 2014 appeared as 19.29% and 15.57% （χ2 =8.92, P〈 0.01）, respectively, with the rates in urban and rural areas as 20.91% and 11.93% （χ2 =47.35, P〈 0.01）. The rates on male and female were 17.87% and 16.98% （χ2 =0.48, P〉 0.05）. The rates of 〈 5 years old group and ≥5 years old group were 21.57% and 17.45% （χ2 =0.03, P〉 0.05） respectively. Conclusions Under-registration in the mortality surveillance was noticed in Jinan. The capture-mark-recapture method seemed useful for evaluating the under-registration rate in the mortality surveillance program. It is suggested that the survey on under-registration rate should be carried out on the regular base. The under-registration rate seemed useful in adjusting the mortality rate.

关 键 词：捕获-标记-再捕获法 漏报率 死因监测 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]