高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略评价——以甘南高原为例  

The evaluation of famers′ climate change adaptation strategies in high-frigid ecological vulnerable region:a case of Gannan Plateau

作　　者：王亚茹[1] 赵雪雁[1] 张钦[1] 雒丽[1] 薛冰[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《生态学报》2017年第7期2392-2402,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106;41471116);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0910);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目

摘　　要：气候变化加剧了高寒生态脆弱区农户的生计脆弱性,为应对气候变化,农户已采取了各种响应措施,当前急需评估农户所采取适应策略的效果,以便选择更有效的适应策略。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据分析了农户所采取适应策略的特征,采用模糊综合评价法分析现行适应策略的效果,并利用多准则决策模型确定了最优的气候变化适应策略。结果显示:(1)甘南高原农户多采取组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以调整+扩张型策略为主;(2)甘南高原农户所采取气候变化适应策略的效果较好,效益指数为3.43。其中,农区农户的适应策略效果最好、半农半牧区次之、纯牧区最差;(3)甘南高原不同区域农户筛选的最优策略存在差异。其中,纯牧区和半农半牧区农户筛选的最优策略为调整农牧业结构,而农区农户为完善农牧业基础设施。最后,提出了提高农户适应策略效果的对策建议及未来研究中需进一步关注的问题。Climate change is one of the most serious challenges that the world is facing in the 21st century. Because the farmers depend on the nature resource, they face various negative impacts of climate change, particularly in the high-frigid ecological vulnerable region. Consequently, climate change has strengthened the livelihood vulnerability of these farmers. The farmers themselves have devised various adaptation strategies to deal with climate change. Hence, it is important to determine how effective adaptation strategies are, and to assess their adaptation strategies. The Gannan Plateau was selected as a case study, and through a stratified random sampling survey and participatory rural appraisal, 548 households were investigated. We analyzed the characteristic of the farmer＇s climate change adaptation strategies, evaluated the effects of these strategies with a fuzzy integrative evaluate method, and determine the most effective adaptation strategy with a multi-criteria decision-making analysis. The results showed that：（1） Most farmers of the Gannan Plateau combine different strategies for dealing with climate change, with 65.30% of the households being farmers and 30.21% employing the ‘expansive and accommodating’ strategy. Furthermore, the choice in adaptation strategy of the farmers differed per area, In the ‘pure pasturing area’, the strategy most used was to reduce the livestock, whereas farmers in the ‘semi-farming-pasturing area’, used early pasture transfers, or regulated the timing of the farming season. In addition, famers in the ‘farming area’ also used early pasture transfers, regulated their farming session, or increased irrigation.（2） The overall effect of the adaptation strategies is moderately positive, with an average effect index of 3.43. From this index, the social efficiency index is the highest （3.63）, and the economic efficiency is the lowest （3.25）. The effect of adaptation strategies was highest in the ‘farming area’ （3.56）, less strong in the ‘

关 键 词：农户 气候变化 适应策略 模糊综合评价法 多准则决策模型 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] S162[农业科学—农业气象学]