农户粮食种植决策影响因素研究——基于河北省农村固定观察点数据  

HOW DO GRAIN FARMERS RESPOND TO GRAIN PRICE——AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON SURVEY IN HEBEI PROVINCE OF CHINA

作　　者：宋雨河[1] 武拉平[2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部对外经济合作中心,北京100125 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年第1期12-16,88,共6页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"历史时期气候变化对华北地区粮食生产与价格波动的影响"(13CJL008);农业部研究项目"农户生产决策及其对农产品市场波动的影响"(201207211110523);"中央高校基本科研业务费专项"(2013YJ011)

摘　　要：文章基于河北省固定观察点数据,应用Nerlove模型,实证分析了影响农户粮食种植决策的主要因素,从微观角度探讨了粮食的供给反应。研究结果表明:粮食作物上期出售价格对粮食种植面积的影响非常显著,玉米价格弹性比小麦更大、更敏感,长期价格弹性相比短期会有所增加。从其他影响显著的变量来看,农户种植习惯(粮食上期种植面积)对作物种植决策影响非常显著,农户的种植决策还会受到粮食投入成本、自有耕地面积和粮食作物收入的影响,这些变量说明农户在粮食种植决策时所考虑的因素比较全面,既受种植习惯和投入成本影响,又有对资源禀赋和比较收益的考虑,农户的生产行为并不是完全盲从于农产品价格的变化,农户家庭收入对粮食收入的依赖性也是其重要的考虑因素。基于此,该研究提出了稳定粮食价格、提高农户粮食种植积极性保障粮食安全等相关政策建议。Using the Nerlove model,this paper analyzed the impacts of grain price on farmer＇ s grain production decision by survey data in Hebei province,and discussed the supply response of grains from micro perspective. The results showed that grain price in previous period had significant positive effects on grain planting area in current period,and the price elasticity of corn was larger than wheat. There were other factors influencing farmer＇s production behavior,including input cost,family land scale,grain income proportion,and so on. Farmers were also significantly affected by their traditional planting habit. Farmer＇ s production behavior did not completely follow the price of agricultural products,but considered the dependent degree of grain income. So farmers can make their production decision more scientifically and cautiously. Finally,some suggestions were provided for farmers＇ production decision and further ensuring grain supply.

关 键 词：粮食价格 农户 种植决策 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7