吨煤瓦斯抽采量与百万吨死亡率的定量关系研究  

Research on quantitative relationship between gas drainage volume per ton and fatality rate per million tons

作　　者：徐青伟[1] 王兆丰[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁省沈阳市110819 [2]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,河南省焦作市454000

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2017年第4期123-127,共5页China Coal

摘　　要：为了探究瓦斯抽采量、煤炭产量与百万吨死亡率的内在联系,提出了瓦斯事故百万吨死亡率的概念,并对与吨煤瓦斯抽采量之间的关系进行了研究。依据吨煤瓦斯抽采量与时间的函数关系及瓦斯抽采量与时间的函数关系,间接对煤炭产量进行预测;建立了以吨煤瓦斯抽采量为依据的百万吨死亡率预测模型。结果表明,煤炭产量预测结果误差较小,明显优于线性回归、GM(1,1)模型等传统煤炭产量预测方法;百万吨死亡率实际值落在预测区间,而指数函数、GM(1,1)模型等传统百万吨死亡率预测结果误差较大。In order to investigate the relationship among gas drainage volume, coal production and fatality rate per million tons, proposed a concept of gas accident fatality rate per million tons and studied the relationship between gas accident fatality rate per million tons and gas drainage volume per ton. Taking gas drainage volume per ton and gas drainage volume as function of time, this paper forecasted coal production indirectly. Established fatality rate per million tons prediction model on the basis of gas drainage volume per ton. The results showed that prediction error of coal production was smaller, which was better than tra- ditional coal production forecast models, such as linear regression and GM （1,1） model. Actual value of fatality rate per million ton fell into the predicted interval, while traditional fatality rate per million ton forecast models, such as exponential function and GM（1,1） model, generated large error.

关 键 词：瓦斯抽采量 煤炭产量 百万吨死亡率 预测模型 

分 类 号：TD712.6[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]