中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空格局演变及影响因素——基于180个地级市的实证研究  

Spatiotemporal pattern evolvement and driving factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency of the major grain producing area in China

作　　者：张立新[1,2] 朱道林[1,2] 谢保鹏[1,2] 杜挺[1,2] 王兴[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]国土资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第4期608-619,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201211001)

摘　　要：本文通过构建DEA模型测度了1994-2014年全国粮食主产区13个省份180个城市的耕地利用效率,利用空间统计模型分析其时空格局演变特征,并运用地理加权回归模型探究了粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空演变的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:①1994-2014年,粮食主产区耕地利用效率总体上呈波动上升的趋势,且具有明显的阶段性变化特征,但整体效率值并不高;②全国粮食主产区耕地利用效率空间差异性显著;粮食主产区耕地利用效率热点区域空间极化现象明显,且随着时间的推移而逐渐变化,呈现出"两核集聚"、"多核极化"、"两核极化"的演变特征;③自然条件是粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空演变的基础因素,耕地资源禀赋、地区经济发展水平、农业生产条件是重要影响因素,而地区科技水平对耕地利用效率的作用不断增强。Cultivated land utilization efficiency was measured and evaluated using the method of DEA （data envelopment analysis）for 180 cities in the major grain producing area of China. At the same time, ArcGIS was used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land utilization efficiency evolution. The spatial distribution and driving factors are discussed using Geographically Weighted Regression （GWR）. We found that the rising trend of cultivated utilization efficiency appeared in major grain producing areas over the whole period from 1994 to 2014, which had significant periodic variation characteristics with low values. There was significant spatial heterogeneity of cultivated land use efficiency in a major grain producing area. It could be found that spatial polarization appeared in hotspot areas of cultivated land use efficiency, and gradually changed over time. Hotspot areas diffused from ＂two core＂ clustering to ＂multicore＂ clustering, and then to ＂two core＂ clustering. The spatiotemporal characteristic evolvement of cultivated land use efficiency resulted from the comprehensive effects of natural conditions, cultivated land resource endowments, regional economic development level and agricultural production conditions.

关 键 词：耕地利用效率 时空格局 演变特征 影响因素 粮食主产区 中国 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]