地方公共品供给与人口迁移——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据  

The Supply of Local Public Goods and Population Migration:Empirical Evidence from 260 Cities at the Prefecture Level or Above

作　　者：杨义武[1] 林万龙[1] 张莉琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2017年第2期93-103,共11页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"构建一体化的新型城乡关系研究"(编号:15AZD020)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章利用工具变量和门限模型估计了地方公共品供给对人口迁移的影响。研究结果显示,地方公共品供给对人口迁移有显著正向影响,但不同规模城市公共品供给对人口迁移的影响强度存在差异,与向大城市迁移相比,流动人口向中小城市迁移会更多地考虑公共服务因素。进一步研究发现,地方公共品供给对人口跨省迁移存在"门槛"效应,而对人口省内迁移表现为明显的促进作用。基础设施供给也对人口迁移具有积极作用。当社会福利供给水平低于一定"门槛"值时,对人口迁移的影响不明显,一旦越过"门槛",对人口迁移则具有显著的正向影响。This paper estimates the effect of local public goods supply on population migration by using instrumental variables and threshold models. The results show that local public goods supply has a positive effect on population migration significantly.However, the effect of public goods on migration is related to the size of cities, because that one tended to migrate to large cities takes into more consideration of economic factors, and the other to small cities considers more public services. Further research shows that the supply of local public goods has the threshold effect on interprovincial migration obviously, but it has a promoting effect on migrate within one province. Besides, the supply of infrastructure has a positive effect on population migration. When the supply level of social welfare is lower than a certain threshold, its effects on population migration are not significantly. Once the curve is passed the threshold, the positive effect shows significantly.

关 键 词：人口迁移 地方公共品供给 迁移结构 供给结构 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] D630[政治法律—政治学]