自由贸易协定能提升国家间亲密度吗?——基于中国周边FTA的实证分析  

Free Trade Agreement and Intimacy Among States: A Quantitative Study Based on China's Neighboring FTAs from 1995 to 2014

作　　者：孙忆[1] 孙宇辰 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2017年第4期129-154,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目"中国经济外交与双边伙伴关系构建"(批准号:17XNH022)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：为构建和平稳定的周边发展环境,中国凭借其经济实力在周边地区推行自由贸易区战略,意图以共享经济红利、打造制度共识的方式提升与周边国家之间的关系亲密度。作者利用中国26个周边国家在1995—2014年间的年度数据进行实证研究,实证结果表明,尽管自由贸易协定的确有助于中国与周边国家构建更亲密的国家间关系,但在纳入美国霸权因素后,中国与周边国家签订自贸协定的效果受到干扰,对于与美国立场更一致的周边国家,中国与其签订的自贸协定并不能有效提升关系亲密度。结合中国与菲律宾国家间亲密度的案例分析,作者认为中国与周边国家关系亲密度有所变化和差异的原因,一方面在于周边国家意图在中国和美国之间采取对冲策略以兼得中国的经济红利和美国的安全保护;另一方面,中国也寻求更稳健、不易引起误会的方式维系与周边国家的关系。由此可见,纯粹倚重经济手段或经济优势以求实现自身国家战略目标,可能存在难以避免的政治约束与限制。这一结论对中国未来外交战略的实施有一定启示意义。To construct peaceful and stable development environment,China implements free trade agreement(FTA)strategy with its relatively prominent economic power in the neighborhood,which shows China’s intention to improve the intimacy with neighboring countries in the ways of sharing economic benefits and building institutional consensus.Nevertheless,the effect of such intention does not work well in reality.We carry out a quantitative study based on annual data of the 26 neighboring countries of China from 1995 to 2014.The result shows that although FTA as an institutional means may help improve intimacy between China and its neighboring countries,it does not take effect when the factor of U.S.hegemony is taken into consideration.For those neighboring countries which share more consistent stances with U.S.,China can hardly improve their intimacy by signing FTA with them.We further offer a possible explanation for such phenomenon with a case study about Sino-Philippine relation.For one thing,China’s neighboring countries may attempt to take hedge strategy in order to obtain both security benefits from U.S.and economic benefits from China.For another,China would also prefer to seek a more reliable way to maintain relationships with neighboring countries without causing unnecessary misunderstandings.Therefore,the findings provide instructive understandings for the implement of China’s diplomatic strategy in the future,that realizing national strategic goals by only economic means or advantages would probably confront inevitable political constraints.

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 国家间亲密度 周边国家 美国霸权 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学] F742[政治法律—外交学]