需求响应对电力需求影响的概率模型  

Probability Model of the Influence of Demand Response on Electricity Demand

作　　者：张振高[1] 王学军[1] 李慧[1] 彭冬[2] 任炳俐 张沛[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网天津市电力公司,天津300010 [2]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京102209 [3]天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2017年第4期115-121,共7页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国家电网公司科技资助项目(5216A313500N)

摘　　要：电力需求预测与分析是电力规划的基础。随着智能电表的推广和需求侧管理的实施,需求响应对于电力需求产生越来越重要的影响。常规的需求响应对电力需求影响的评估结果通常是确定性的。本文考虑需求响应的不确定性因素,提出了需求响应对电力需求影响的概率模型。通过对选定区域的需求响应进行概率分析研究,可以支撑基于概率方法的扩展性规划。The forecasting and analysis of electricity demand is the basis of power planning, and with the popularization of smart meters and the implementation of demand side management, demand response is playing an increasingly impor- tant role in electricity demand. To solve the problem that the conventional assessments on demand response are usually deterministic, the uncertainties of demand response are considered in this paper, and a probability model is proposed for analyzing the influence of demand response on electricity demand. Through the probabilistic analysis of demand re- sponse in selected regions, it can be seen that the results can support scalability planning based on the proposed proba- bilistic method.

关 键 词：需求响应 不确定性 序列运算理论 分布拟合 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]