人民币汇率与对外承包工程——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究  

The Exchange Rate of RMB and Foreign Contracted Projects—an empirical analysis based on international panel data

作　　者：蒋骄亮 何凡[2] 曾剑宇[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院 [2]华中师范大学政治与国际关系学院 [3]中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院

出　　处：《投资研究》2017年第1期38-50,共13页Review of Investment Studies

摘　　要：本文基于2005—2013年间我国对外承包工程的56个国家的面板数据,实证分析了人民币汇率对我国对外承包工程的影响。在控制其他影响因素后,研究发现,直接标价法下人民币汇率水平的上升、汇率波动的加剧以及汇率预期水平的提高都会对我国企业对外承包工程产生显著的抑制作用。进一步研究发现,这一抑制作用会受到金融危机、对外承包工程所在国的经济发展水平、资源丰富度的影响。因此随着人民币国际化进程的不断深入,我国对外承包工程企业应当建立健全风险规避机制,提高应对汇率风险的意识与能力。This paper is based on the panel data in 2005-2013, which produced by contracted projects between China and other 56 foreign countries, and analyzes empirically the influence on China＇s foreign contracted projects caused by the RMB ex- change rate. This research found that any increase of RMB exchange rate or intensification of the exchange rate fluctuation and increase exchange rate expectations under direct quotation method would have a significant inhibitory effect on the China＇s for- eign contracted projects. More deeply research found that this inhibitory effect could be affected by financial crisis, the econom- ic development level of the contracted country and the richness of resources. Thus, in order to adapt to the development of the internationalization of RMB, those foreign contracted project enterprises in China should establish wholesome risk avoidance mechanism and improve its consciousness and ability in dealing with exchange-rate risks.

关 键 词：汇率水平 汇率波动 汇率预期 对外承包工程 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F426.92F125