油气管道事故特征与量化的理论研究  

Theoretical study on characteristics and quantification of oil and gas pipeline accidents

作　　者：冯庆善[1] FENG Qingshan(PetroChina Pipeline Compan)

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2017年第4期369-374,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科技攻关项目"漠大线冻土区管道安全运行关键技术研究";油气1104-03

摘　　要：为了提高对管道事故的认识,更好地预测和预防管道事故,归纳整理了事故特征,清晰描述了事故的本质特性,提出了一个新的事故评估描述模式,即采用脆弱性、反脆弱性及完整性指标量化描述管道发生事故的状态。管道系统的脆弱性是指管道在内外部因素发生变化时可能发生事故的趋势,描述的是已知的缺陷发展为事故或完好的状态发展为事故的可能性;管道的反脆弱性是指在内外部环境因素发生变化,甚至在发生事故后,管道的应急措施、完整性管理等方面得到加强,反脆弱性表述了管道系统在事故预防方面向好的方向发展;管道系统的完整性指管道的物理状态完好,耐各种因素变化的能力较强。该模式区别于传统的风险评估,对事故本质的认识和评估更加清晰,并将对风险评价技术方法的改进有一定的指导作用。In order to improve the understanding of pipeline accidents, predict and prevent pipeline accidents better, the accident characteristics were summarized and sorted, and the essential characteristics of the accidents were clearly described. A new evaluation and description model was proposed to quantitatively describe the states of pipeline accidents by the indicators of fragility, anti-fragility and integrity. The fragility of pipeline system is the occurring tendency of potential accidents when the internal and external factors change, which is used to describe the possibility of known defects or intact states evolving into accidents. The anti-fragility describes that the emergency measures and integrity management get better after the change of internal and external factors or even accident happens. It means that pipeline system is getting better in preventing accidents. The integrity of pipeline system represents that pipelines are physically in good conditions with stronger capacity to resist the change of various factors. This new model differs from the traditional risk assessment, which has a clearer understanding and assessment of the nature of the accident, and will have a certain guiding role in the improvement of risk assessment techniques.

关 键 词：油气管道 事故 脆弱性 反脆弱性 完整性 预测 风险 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]