矿坑涌水量预测模型参数灵敏度分析  

Sensitivity analysis for forecasting model parameters of mine water inflow

作　　者：王科奇[1] 刘佩贵[1] 陶月赞[1] 李飞[1] 樊慧慧[2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期502-505,共4页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51309071;51509064)

摘　　要：矿区水文地质条件一般较复杂,参数的空间变异性强,致使矿坑涌水量预测模型中的参数具有一定的不确定性,从而影响预测结果的可靠度。为定量确定影响预测结果的主要因子,文章以某金属矿区的矿坑涌水量计算模型为研究对象,运用扩展傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验法(extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test,EFAST)对模型参数进行了全局灵敏度分析,得到相关参数的一阶灵敏度和总灵敏度,并分别与局部灵敏度分析法和Morris法的评价结果进行了详细对比分析。研究结果表明,采用EFAST法开展矿坑涌水量预测模型的参数灵敏度分析是切实可行的,也是较为有效的方法之一,矿坑涌水量预测结果对渗透系数最为敏感。The uncertainties of mine water inflow forecasting model parameters have often been witnessed due to the complex hydrogeological conditions and high spatial variation of parameters of mining area, thus affecting the reliability of predictions. In order to quantitatively determine the main factors influencing the size of the water flow, taking the calculation model of pit water inflow of a metal mining area as the research object, the global sensitivity analysis on model parameters with the appli- cation of extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test（EFAST） method is utilized. The first-order sen- sitivity of relevant parameters and the total sensitivity are obtained. In addition, the results are also compared with the parameter sensitivity sequencing obtained by the Morris method and local sensitivi- ty analysis. The results show that the EFAST method is practical and feasible for the parameter sensi- tivity analysis of mine water inflow prediction model and it is one of the most effective methods, and the prediction result is most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity.

关 键 词：矿坑涌水量 渗透系数 灵敏度分析 扩展傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验法(EFAST) Morris法 

分 类 号：P641.41[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]