基于最大熵模型的沙棘绕实蝇适生性研究  

Potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis batava Hering basing on Maxent

作　　者：何佳遥 赵继羽 赵紫华[1] 吴佳教[2] 张祥林[3] 张伟[3] 李亚伟[3] 李志红[1] He Jiayao Zhao Jiyu Zhao Zihua Wu Jiajiao Zbang Xianglin Zhang Wei Li Yawei Li Zhihong(College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193 ,China Inspection and Quarantine Technology Center,Guangdong Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau Xinjiang Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学植物保护学院,北京100193 [2]广东出入境检验检疫局检验检疫技术中心 [3]新疆出入境检验检疫局

出　　处：《植物检疫》2017年第2期22-29,共8页Plant Quarantine

摘　　要：沙棘绕实蝇(Rhagoletis batava Hering)是危害沙棘果实的重要害虫。本研究采用Maxent模型,在收集和整理沙棘绕实蝇全球地理分布信息的基础上,筛选出与该虫发生相关的11个关键环境变量,预测了当前及未来气候条件下该虫在全球以及我国的适生区和适生程度。在当前气候条件下,该虫在全球的适生范围主要集中在北温带地区,在我国的适生范围较广且适生程度较高;在2050年的两种气候情景下,沙棘绕实蝇在全球的适生区北界均向北移动,在我国的适生范围均略有扩大且适生区向西南部拓展。建议我国相关部门进一步加强针对沙棘绕实蝇的入侵防控工作。Rhagoletis batava Hering （Diptera：Tephritidae）is one of the most significant pests that damage the fruit of seabuckthorn. Using available distribution information and 11 selected environmental vari- ables,this research predicted the potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis batava in both China and the world under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climate scenario,the pest would be suitable to survive in the North Temperate Zone. There is a wide range of suitable region for Rhagoletis batava in China,with high degree of suitable levels. Under climate scenarios in 2050,the northern boundary of suitable region in the world tend to move northward ,the suitable region in China is predicted to be wider slightly and expand to the southwest region. We suggest the related organization to strengthen the prevention and control of Rhagoletis batava in China.

关 键 词：沙棘实蝇 潜在地理分布 气候变化 MAXENT ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S763.7[农业科学—森林保护学]