基于灰色GMDH网络组合模型的风速预测  

Wind speed prediction based on grey GMDH network combined model

作　　者：李牡丹[1,2] 王印松[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学科技学院,河北保定071003 [2]华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《可再生能源》2017年第4期522-527,共6页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：华北电力大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(9161715008)

摘　　要：风电场风速具有较大的间歇性和波动性,其预测精度有待提高。针对这一问题,文章基于灰色系统理论与GMDH数据分组处理技术,建立了灰色GMDH网络组合风速预测模型;采用某风电场实测风速数据进行预测,并与灰色Verhulst模型预测方法和传统GMDH网络模型预测方法的预测结果进行了对比。算例结果表明,灰色GMDH网络组合风速预测模型能够更精确地预测风速,显示了其可行性与高效性。Due to the strong intermittency and volatility of wind speed in wind farms,prediction precision of wind speed needs to be improved.This paper builds a grey GMDH network combined wind speed prediction model based on Grey System Theory and GMDH（Group method of data handling）. The data are actually measured in a wind farm, and the prediction results are compared with the results got from grey Verhulst model and traditional GMDH network model. Numerical example results indicate that the grey GMDH network combined wind speed prediction model can forecast wind speed more accurately with high feasibility and efficiency.

关 键 词：灰色VERHULST模型 GMDH网络 风速预测 组合模型 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]