天津区域减排政策经济与排放影响  

Influences of climate policies on the regional economy and carbon emissions in Tianjin

作　　者：温丹辉[1] 孙振清[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学经济管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第4期28-33,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(16AGL002)";天津市哲学社会科学规划项目(TJYY16-019);天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划(TD25005)资助

摘　　要：文中讨论了天津区域减排政策对经济和碳排放的影响。采用动态递归CGE模型,考察了4种不同的发展情景,包括1个基准情景和3个政策情景。经模拟,既定减排政策下的参考情景中天津会在2025年前排放达峰,排放峰值约为2.65亿吨;宽松情景下的经济增速比参考情景高0.3个百分点,但达峰时间推迟到2025年之后,峰值约2.91亿吨;低碳情景下经济增速比参考情景低0.4个百分点,但达峰时间提前到2020年,峰值约2.47亿吨。减排政策有助于调整天津产业结构,但不必然导致经济转型,实现区域的可持续发展之路还需要其他配套政策。Influences of Tianjin＇ climate policies on the regional economy and carbon emissions were discussed.Based on a recursive dynamic CGE model,four scenarios were evaluated,including a BAU scenario and 3 policy scenarios. The results show that Tianjin will reach its carbon discharge peak before 2025 under the reference scenario,with the total discharge of 265 million tons. Under the slack scenario,the regional GDP rate will be 0.3% higher,and Tianjin will reach the peak after 2025 with the total carbon discharge of 291 million tons. Under the low carbon scenario,the regional GDP rate will be 0. 4% lower than the reference scenario,and Tianjin will reach the peak before 2020 with the total discharge of 247 million tons. Climate policies focused on the energy cap will promote regional industrial structure adjustment,but the influence is insignificent. So other supporting policies are needed to realize Tianijn＇s transformational development.

关 键 词：减排政策 碳峰值 可计算一般均衡 天津 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]