近45年来青海三江源区干湿变化的趋势分析  

Trend analysis of climatic change in the Three River Headwater Region in Qinghai Province during last 45 years

作　　者：赵志平[1] 关潇[1] 李果[1] 翟俊[2] 汉瑞英 李俊生[1] 吴晓莆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]环境保护部卫星环境应用中心,北京100094

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第4期148-153,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划"高寒草地综合利用关键技术及适应性管理研究与示范"(2016YFC0501904)资助

摘　　要：文中利用青海三江源区气象台站1966-2010年日值观测数据,采用修正的Penman-Monteith模型和Thornthwaite方法,计算了各站点潜在蒸散和湿润指数,并分季节、分流域对平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散和湿润指数进行分析。结果表明:1966-2010年三江源区年平均温度显著上升,90年代年降水量为低值期,2000年以来年降水量有所增加,但仍然低于80年代水平。近45年来三江源区潜在蒸散下降,湿润指数呈现小幅上升趋势,长江源和澜沧江源区均表现出暖湿趋势,而黄河源区表现出暖干趋势。In this article,we firstly used daily observed data to calculate the ET0 and index of moisture of meteorological station in the Three River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province from 1966-2010 by using Penman-Monteith Model and Thornthwaite method. Then we analyzed the four climatic factors of average temperature,precipitation,the ET0 and the index of moisture for seasons and river basins. The result showed that the annual temperature of this region rose significantly. The precipitation of this region decreased in 1990 s,and increased in2000 s,but not reached the level of 1980 s. The index of moisture presented little range rising trend. The headwaters region of the Yangtze and Lancang River was getting warm and wet,whereas the headwaters region of the Yellow River was getting warm and dry.

关 键 词：气候变化 Penman-Monteith模型 湿润指数 三江源 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]