中国"热极"吐鲁番酷热期时间变化特征及成因分析  

Time variation characteristics and causes for the hot period in Chinese "hot pole" Tulufan

作　　者：汪天广 刘普幸[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第4期165-170,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961035);甘肃省科技计划基金项目(0803RJZA094);甘肃省级重点学科自然地理学项目资助

摘　　要：基于吐鲁番1961-2014年逐日平均气温资料,计算候平均温度≥30℃酷热期的起止日期及日数,利用线性倾向率、M-K检验、小波分析等方法及WCI、SHI、PVA、PVI、JW、JQ和SS逐月指数等指标,对吐鲁番酷热期时间变化特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明:近54a来,吐鲁番酷热期起始日期略有提前、终止日期推后、日数延长,变化倾向率分别为-0.09p/10a(-0.45d/10a)、0.26p/10a(1.3d/10a)和0.61p/10a(3.05d/10a)。Morlet小波分析表明研究区酷热期起始日期、终止日期和日数存在显著的以2a和6a为主的短周期,其中2a周期与大气环流准2-4a周期的振荡相一致,6a周期与东亚冬季风6.5a周期基本一致,反映了大气环流对其的影响。相关分析结果表明吐鲁番酷热期受西风和北极极涡影响显著,相关系数均通过了α=0.05的置信度,并与周期分析相吻合。Based on the date of daily average temperature from 1961 to 2014 in Tulufan,the hot period onset date,end date and days with pentad average temperature ≥30℃ were calculated; the methods of linear regression analysis,the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test,Morlet wavelet analysis and the monthly index of WCI,SHI,PVA,PVI,JW,JQ and SS were used to analyze the time variation characteristics and cause of the hot period in Tulufan. The results show that： since recent 54 years,the hot period onset date has advanced,end date has postponed and the duration has prolonged in Tulufan,trend rate are-0. 09 p/10a（-0. 45 d/10a）,0. 26 p/10a（ 1. 3d/10a） and 0. 61 p/10a（ 3. 05 d/10a）. By the result of Morlet complex wavelet,we found that the hot period in Tulufan showed 2a and 6a cycles,and 2a cycle was similar with oscillation of the quasi 2-4 annual cycle of Atmospheric Circulation,6a cycle was similar with the 6. 5 annual cycle of East Asian Winter Monsoon,it reflects the influence of atmospheric circulation. The result of the correlation analysis show that WCI and PVA had significant influence to the hot period in Tulufan,and the correlation coefficient pass through the confidence level of α = 0. 05,it correspond to periodic analysis.

关 键 词：酷热期 候平均气温 M-K检验 MORLET小波分析 吐鲁番 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]