泡沫经济崩溃后日本非常规利率政策效果实证研究——从“零利率”走向“负利率”  

Empirical Research on Unconventional Interest Rate Policy of Japan after the Collapse of Bubble Economy:From Zero Interest Rate to Negative Interest Rate

作　　者：孙丽[1] 王世龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际关系学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2017年第3期24-41,共18页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"全球经济失衡与治理对我国开放型经济转型升级的影响与对策研究"(14ZDA085);辽宁省财政厅项目"全面推进辽宁供给侧结构性改革的财政政策研究"(16C002);辽宁大学国家级项目预申报基金"日本工业转型的就业后果及其对策研究:对我国的启示"(2008LDGY04);辽宁大学亚洲研究中心课题"破解中日韩自由贸易区‘囚徒困境’的路径研究"(Y201708)

摘　　要：非常规利率政策是日本央行针对本国经济"顽疾"的主要治疗方法。极低的利率水平,规模巨大的货币总量能否再次使得日本国内的资产价格偏离基本面从而引发新的金融和资产泡沫,值得人们警惕。实证分析表明:日本央行负利率政策仍很难产生明显的积极影响,反而在一定程度上使得消费者和企业变得更加消极,有使国内消费总需求进一步减少和国内投资环境进一步恶化的可能。因此,面对总需求不足的困境,日本经济的结构性改革迫在眉睫,缩小贫富差距,增加居民劳动报酬收入,提升整个社会的边际消费倾向是当务之急。Unconventional interest rate policy is customarily applied by Japan central bank to resolve the eco- nomic stubborn ills. Whether extremely low interest rates and large amount of currency would make domestic assets prices deviate from fundamentals again,which in turn will cause new financial and asset bubbles？ That is worthy of people＇s attention. The empirical analysis based on VAR model shows that Japan central bank＇s negative interest rate policy is still difficult to produce obvious positive effect, but makes consumers and busi- nesses become more negative which is likely to worsen the domestic consumption demand and domestic invest- ment environment. Therefore, Japan＇s economic structural reform is urgent. In view of the plight of insufficient aggregate demand, narrowing down the gap between rich and poor, increasing labor remuneration and improving the marginal propensity to consume of the whole society are the top priority for Japan.

关 键 词：日本 非常规利率政策 无抵押隔夜拆借利率 零利率 负利率 

分 类 号：F833.313.0[经济管理—金融学]