基于DPSIR模型的天津农业可持续发展评价分析  

Evaluation of sustainable development of agriculture in Tianjin by DPSIR model

作　　者：陈琼[1] 张蕾[1] 李瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市农村经济与区划研究所,天津300192

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2017年第2期160-167,共8页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：全国农业资源区划项目(2015);天津市农业科学院院长基金(14015)

摘　　要：基于DPSIR模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面构建天津农业可持续发展的指标体系,并运用主成分分析法对2007—2013年天津农业可持续发展水平进行综合评价。评价结果显示,天津农业可持续发展能力综合得分逐年增加,从2007年的-1.0927增至2013年的1.1343,天津农业可持续发展水平总体上呈明显稳步上升趋势。然而,天津农业可持续发展的5个子系统发展尚不均衡,其中天津市农业系统发展所承受的压力在逐渐减小,从而对天津农业可持续发展的阻碍也较小;天津市农村社会经济发展水平稳步提升,城镇化速度加快,经济规模日益壮大,促进天津市农业可持续能力良性发展;天津市农业系统下社会、资源与环境等状态子系统发展良好;天津农业的响应子系统制约了天津农业可持续发展,应采取相应措施,促进并实现天津农业的可持续发展。总体而言,近年来天津市农业可持续发展水平虽呈逐年上升态势,但仍存在很大的提升空间。Based on DPSIR model,an assessment indicator evaluation system of sustainable development of agriculture in Tianjin from five aspects（i.e. driving force,pressure,state,impact and response） was established,and principal component analysis was used to assess the level of sustainable development of agriculture in Tianjin from 2007 to 2013. The results show that the score of sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture increases year by year,from-1.092 7 in 2007 to 1.134 3 in 2013,which signifies an obvious steady increase of sustainable development level of Tianjin agriculture as a whole. However,the five subsystems are uneven by developed. The pressure on development of Tianjin agriculture system decreases gradually,which reduces the obstruction to the sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture. The steady development of Tianjin rural society and economy,acceleration of urbanization,and growing economy scale,promote a sound sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture. The state subsystems of society,resource and environment under Tianjin agriculture system develop well. The response subsystem restricts the sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture,and appropriate measures should be taken to promote and achieve sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture. In general,although the level of sustainable development of Tianjin agriculture increases year by year in recent years,there is still needed much improvement.

关 键 词：农业可持续发展 DPSIR模型 评价指标体系 天津 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济]