农地流转与城镇化的互动关系和耦合协调性研究——基于中国2000-2014年的时间序列数据  

Interactive relationship and coupling coordinanate between farmland transference and urbanization——based on the time series data from 2000 to 2014 in China

作　　者：蔡为民[1] 吴云青[1] 刘瑶[1] 罗倩[1] 贺迪[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第5期33-38,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJC630236);国家自然科学青年基金(41301189)资助

摘　　要：基于我国2000-2014年的时间序列数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验和耦合协调模型分析探讨了农地流转与城镇化之间的互动关系和动态耦合发展态势。研究结果表明:农地流转和城镇化之间存在协整关系,且表现为较强的正相关性;农地流转与城镇化之间存在单向因果关系,即我国的城镇化有效促进了农地流转,但农地流转对城镇化进程的推动效应却并不显著;当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,系统将以0.8743的调节力度将非均衡状态修正到均衡状态,但在短期内城镇化的自身反馈效应并不明显,农地流转对城镇化的短期推动效应不明显;2000-2014年期间,我国农地流转与城镇化之间的耦合协调度呈现显著提升的态势,总体而言,为中度协调耦合。Based on time series data over the period of 2000 to 2014, ADF test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test and coupling coordination model were applied to investigate the interactive relationship and dynamic coordinate developing trend between farmland transference and urbanization in China. The results show that： Cointegration relationship existed between urbanization and farmland trans- ference, with a strong positive correlation; unidirectional causal relationship existed between the two series. Ur- banization contributes effectively to farmland transference circulation, while farmland transference had no signifi- cant effect on urbanization. When the short - term fluctuations deviated from the long - run equilibrium, the un- balanced error of next installment set the state back to equilibrium by 0. 8743. Further, in the short - term, feedback effect of urbanization is not significant, so does the motivation effect on urbanization brought by farmland transference. From 2000 to 2014, Coupling coordination degree improved over the years significantly, in general, at moderate coordinate coupling degree.

关 键 词：农地流转 城镇化 互动关系 耦合协调度 时间序列数据 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]