基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析中小尺度多年气候变化特征研究——以甘肃省白银市近50年气候变化为例  

Small and medium scale of climatic variation characteristics of Baiyin city,Gansu Province

作　　者：杨义 舒和平 马金珠[2] 阳志方 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省靖远县水务局,靖远730600 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院西部教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [3]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙410000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第5期126-131,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B05)资助

摘　　要：基于甘肃省白银市近50年来气温、降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall法和小波分析进行研究。研究结果表明:白银市气温总体呈升高趋势,降水量呈现波动变化。白银市气温1987年后增长迅速,作物生长期内平均气温的变化和年均气温变化基本一致,但其对年平均气温增加贡献不大。白银市降水量进入20世纪90年代略有增加趋势,但增加趋势并不明显,作物生长期内降水量与年降水量变化极为相似,这与白银市降水量偏少且相对集中有关。白银市气温变化存在2~5年,9~11年和约20年的周期变化;降水变化存在2~6年,9~10年和20年左右的周期变化;其中气温和降水变化周期中均以20年左右的年代际变化为主。Based on the data of air temperature and precipitation from the meteorological station in Baiyin city, we utilized the Mann -Kendall method and the wavelet to analyze the climatic variation characteristics. Results showed that the temperature presented a tendency of increasing and the precipitation was fluctuated in Baiyin city. The temperature was rapidly augmented after 1987 in the study area, and the variance tendency of mean air temperature in crop growth period was consistent with the annual air temperature, but its contribution to mean annual air temperature was not big. The precipitation emerged a tendency of increasing after 1990. However, the increasing trend was not obvious. The variance tendency of precipitation in crop growth period was almost similar to the annual total precipitation, this have something to do with less rainfall and relative concentration in Baiyin city. Furthermore, there were multi -scaled periods changes for air temperature and precipitation, the specific periods were 2-5 years, 9 - llyears and about 20 years for temperature; and it also existed 2-6 years, 9-10 years and about years periods for precipitation. Therein, the decadal variability of 20 years were given priority to with the temperature and precipitation change cycle period.

关 键 词：气候变化 MANN-KENDALL法 小波分析 白银市 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]