全球天然橡胶种植的潜在气候适宜区预测  

The Prediction on Potential Climatic Suitable Region of Global Natural Rubber Planting

作　　者：刘少军[1] 王斌[1] 李伟光[1] 蔡大鑫[1] 张国峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所/海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2017年第4期654-656,660,共4页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41465005;41265007;41675113);海南省自然科学基金项目(20154172;409005)

摘　　要：在前期研究的基础上,根据全球气候数据集和影响橡胶种植的5个主导气候因子,基于最大熵模型,预测了全球橡胶种植的地理分布。结果表明,亚洲、非洲、美洲、大洋洲均存在橡胶种植的潜在适宜区,并与实际橡胶种植的情况进行对比分析,预测结果与实况基本一致。On the basis of previous research, the geographical distribution of global rubber plantation was predicted by the maximum entropy model based on the global climate data and the five dominant climatic factors influencing of rubber planta- tion. The results showed that there were potential suitable area of rubber plantation in Asia, Africa, America, Oceania. Re- sults showed that the area of climatic suitability of rubber plantation predicted by maximum entropy model were consistent to the actual rubber planting situation.

关 键 词：橡胶种植 MAXENT 气候适宜性 

分 类 号：S796[农业科学—林木遗传育种] TP79[农业科学—林学]