基于Multi-Agent的虚假舆情传播仿真  

Simulation of False Public Opinion Dissemination Based on Multi-Agent

作　　者：孙雷霆[1,2] 李春发[1] 陶建强[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]海军工程大学勤务学院,天津300450

出　　处：《情报杂志》2017年第4期162-169,共8页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]面对虚假舆情传播,如何及时掌握传播影响程度,预测应对策略实施效果,在当前信息高速流动条件下是亟需关注的课题。从宏观与微观相结合的视角掌控虚假舆情传播情况,具备实践意义。[方法/过程]运用Anylogic仿真平台,使用Multi-Agent建模技术,建立虚假舆情传播的巴斯扩散仿真模型。通过定义Agent行为直观地表现虚假舆情传播影响程度,揭示其影响发展趋势,发现不同应对策略的舆论修正效果。以"某型舰发生蒸汽爆炸事故""大妈碰瓷玩具车"两个虚假舆情为例进行实证研究,比较应对策略的实施效果。[结果/结论]MultiAgent建模技术可以从微观上直观展现传播个体行为,从宏观上揭示传播程度和策略有效度。在实际应用中,可根据不同舆情事件的条件参数预先进行仿真分析,通过仿真结果预测舆论发展情况,制定针对性策略,提前进行舆论引导,该方法可为舆情传播控制提供参考。[ Purpose/Significance ] In the face of false public opinion dissemination, it is worthy of paying attention to predicting the effect of coping strategies and master the degree of communication influence under the condition of high speed flow of information. And it is of practical significance to control the spread of false public opinion from the perspective of macroscopic and microcosmic. [ Method/ Process ] The study uses Anylogic simulation platform and Multi-agent modeling techniques, and establishes the false public opinion prop- agation simulation model of BASS. The extent of the impact of false public opinion dissemination is demonstrated by defining Agent be- havior, the impact of false public opinion dissemination development trend can be revealed, and different coping strategies in the public o- pinion correction can be found. In this paper, an empirical study is used. The false public opinion examples are ＂Steam explosion accident of a certain type of ship＂ and ＂Aunt deliberately provoked the trouble of toy car＂. There are some contrasts for implementation effect of coping strategies in the simulation experiment. [ Result/Conclusion] Multi-Agent modeling technology can directly show the individual behavior in the process of communication from the microscopic viewpoint. Similarly, it can also reveal the degree of communication and the effectiveness of the strategy from the macro level. In practice, simulation analysis can be used according to the condition parameters of different public opinion events. According to the simulation results, the development of public opinion can be predicted, and the strategy can be formulated to guide the public opinion in advance. This method can provide reference for the control of public opinion transmission.

关 键 词：MULTI-AGENT 虚假舆情 舆情传播 巴斯扩散 ANYLOGIC 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理]