沙漠地区软土路基沉降最优组合预测方法研究  

Study on Optimum Combination Forecasting Method for Soft Soil Subgrade Settlement in Desert Area

作　　者：欧湘萍[1] 吕乃芝 李瑭[1] 尹航[1] 周思全 郭慧峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉天兴洲道桥投资开发有限公司,武汉430011

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2017年第2期239-243,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

摘　　要：采用泊松曲线拟合法、灰色系统法两种预测方法来计算该地区软基的沉降,再以组合预测模型理论为依据,将不同权重赋予上述两种预测方法的子模型,采用不同权系数确定方法建立两种最优组合预测模型来计算软基的沉降.通过组合预测模型与子模型计算数据对比分析可知,新模型能将此前两种单一预测方法的局限性、误差均有所减小,使得计算出的沉降数据与现场实测值更加相符,更能准确地预测软土路基的沉降,可用于预测各时期沉降.Firstly, the Poisson curve fitting method and the gray system model are used to calculate the settlement of the soft foundation in the area. Then based on the theory of combined forecasting model, the different weights are given to the sub-models of the above two kinds of forecasting methods. The two optimal combination forecasting models established by the method are used to calculate the settlement of the soft foundation. Through the comparative analysis of the combined forecasting model and the sub-model calculation data, the new model can reduce the limitation and error of the previous two kinds of single prediction methods, so that the calculated settlement data are more consistent with the field measured values, and it can be more accurate. To predict the settlement of soft soil subgrade, this method can be used to predict the settlement of each period.

关 键 词：软土路基 沉降预测 组合预测模型 沙漠地区 

分 类 号：U411[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]