基于DEA-Tobit两步法的城镇化效率评价及其影响因素——从人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的视角  

Evaluation of Urbanization Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors Based on DEA-Tobit Two Step Method from the Perspective of Coordinated Development between Urban Population and Land

作　　者：王晓云[1] 杨秀平[1] 张雪梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第5期29-34,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"核心主体需求视角下区域旅游环境承载力研究"(41501597);甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目"甘肃省人口城镇化和土地城镇化协调发展研究"(YB035);兰州市社会科学规划项目"兰州市旅游环境可持续承载的区间多目标优化研究"(16-007E);兰州市社会科学规划项目"供给侧改革背景下兰州市节能环保产业发展评价及优化升级研究"(16-029D)

摘　　要：当前我国土地城镇化超前发展的大背景下,从人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的视角研究城镇化效率具有重要的现实意义。文章以甘肃省12个地级市为研究对象,选用DEA模型从人口与土地城镇化协调发展的视角评价城镇化动态效率和静态效率,并建立面板Tobit回归模型分析城镇化静态效率的影响因素。结论表明,2009—2014年12个城市整体城镇化效率年均下降9.5%,其中在2014年有7个城市属于非DEA有效发展类型;经济发展水平、外资利用规模变量对城镇化综合效率并未表现出显著影响,城市规模与城镇化综合效率呈现"U"型曲线关系,金融发展程度、第二产业比重和第三产业比重与城镇化综合效率正相关,投资率、产权结构变量与城镇化综合效率负相关。Under the background of the excessive development of land urbanization in China, it has important practical significance to study the urbanization efficiency from the perspective of the coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization. This paper takes 12 cities in Gansu as the research object, uses DEA model to evaluate the dynamic efficiency and static efficiency of urbanization from the perspective of coordinated development between population and land urbanization, establishes the panel Tobit regression model to analyze the influence factors of the urbanization static efficiency. The conclusion shows that the overall efficiency of urbanization fell by 9.5% from 2009 to 2014, 7 cities belonged to the non DEA effective types in 2014; the level of economic development, the scale of foreign capital variables show no significant effect on urbanization comprehensive efficiency, urbanization comprehensive efficiency presents a U-shaped curve relationship with the scale of city, the degree of financial development, the proportion of the second industry and the proportion of the third industry are positively correlated with the urbanization comprehensive efficiency, investment rate and ownership structure variables are negatively correlated with urbanization comprehensive efficiency.

关 键 词：城镇化效率 影响因素 DEA-TOBIT两步法 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]