中国居民生活用能碳排放影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型  

Analysis on Influence Factors of Domestic Energy Carbon Emissions in China: Based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：汤嫣嫣 李爽[1] 夏青[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第5期42-47,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于经济和环境效益均衡的能源消费结构与产业结构协同优化模型及政策研究"(71440005);国家自然科学基金项目"基于大数据挖掘的煤矿安全管理决策模型及仿真研究"(71573256);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"能源安全视角下我国能源结构体系优化研究"(2013XK01)

摘　　要：近年居民碳排放比重逐年上升。在此背景下,文章测算了1990—2014年我国居民生活用能碳排放,并运用STIRPAT模型定量分析各变量对生活用能碳排放的影响。结果表明:能源结构、居民消费水平、城镇化率对我国居民生活用能碳排放的影响程度相对较大;从绝对视角来看,各因素的弹性系数绝对值依次为:人口规模、城市化率、能源结构(负值)、居民消费水平和能源强度。研究结果为我国能源结构的优化、集约型城市化的发展以及低碳消费的倡导提供理论基础。In recent years, studies confirm that residents＇ carbon emissions proportion rises year by year. In this background, this article measures carbon emissions from China residents＇ domestic energy between 1990 and 2012, and uses STIRPAT model to quantificationally analyzes each variable influence of the carbon emissions of residents＇ domestic energy. The results show that the energy structure, the resident consumption level and the urbanization rate have a bigger influence; and from the absolute perspective, various factors＇ elasticity coefficient of the absolute value of sequence is population scale, urbanization rate, energy structure （negative）, and resident consumption level and energy intensity. The research results provid some guidance for the establishment of emission reduction policies in China, provid the theoretical basis for the development of the optimization of energy structure, intensive urbanization as well as the low carbon consumer advocacy.

关 键 词：碳排放 居民生活用能 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]