中国核电站工程期自保风险分散设计研究  

Research on the Risk Transfer of Self-insurance for Nuclear Power Plant Project in China

作　　者：王欣[1,2] 徐伟[1,3,4] 李古清 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]中国人民财产保险股份有限公司特殊风险保险事业部,北京100022 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《保险职业学院学报》2017年第2期5-11,共7页Journal of Insurance Professional College

基　　金：教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校学科创新引智计划"北京师范大学综合灾害风险管理创新引智基地"(B08008)

摘　　要：随着核电建设的发展,我国核电保险业务也逐渐兴起。本文以某保险公司2005—2015年间开工建设至基本完工的核电站项目工程期为对象,采用常用分布模型对单次损失进行了拟合和对比分析,构建了核电站工程事故灾难和自然灾害风险的评估模型,在此基础上探讨了核电站工程期底层风险自留、比例风险自留和上层风险自留风险的分散策略。结果表明:核电站工程期的事故灾难和自然灾害风险,Lognormal分布函数拟合的效果最好;建议核电站自保机构采用自留0-5000万元的底层风险策略和百年一遇的赔付责任几率对应的风险自留边界为上层自留风险的起点。With the development of nuclear power construction, China＇s nuclear power insurance business is gradually rising. In this paper, taking the example of the nuclear power plant project from 2005 to 2015 of a certain insurance company, the loss curve is first obtained by fitting with common distribution model based on historical loss data and then compared, and then the risks for accident and natural disaster are calculated. Finally, the risk transfer strategies for risk retention at bottom level, proportional, and upper level are discussed. The results show that the Lognormal distribution function is the best to denote the accident and natural disaster risks during the construction period of the nuclear power plant. It is suggested that the self--protection mechanism of the nuclear power plant project adopt the strategies of 0-50 million Yuan for bottom level retention and of 6.5 million for upper level retention.

关 键 词：核电站工程期 自保 损失分布模型 风险分散 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]