我国城市蔬菜价格波动的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Fluctuation of Urban Vegetable Prices in China

作　　者：黄修杰[1] 储霞玲[1] 白雪娜[1] 刘海英[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省农业科学院农业经济与农村发展研究所,广东广州510640 [2]内蒙古大学鄂尔多斯学院,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017000

出　　处：《北方园艺》2017年第8期190-195,共6页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71563031);广东省自然科学基金资助项目(S2013010013762);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2015MS0714)

摘　　要：为了研究我国城市蔬菜价格波动趋势,了解影响蔬菜价格波动的主要因素,对全国36个大中城市居民的鲜菜消费价格指数进行分析,并选取大白菜、番茄、黄瓜、茄子、青椒5个蔬菜品种进行重点考察,利用X-12季节调整模型,将蔬菜价格的季节性因素剥离,运用非对称误差修正模型(APT-ECM)模型验证蔬菜价格的非对称传导,从产业链价格传导视角研究这5种蔬菜的集贸市场价格波动。结果表明:2009—2014年,我国36个大中城市居民鲜菜消费价格指数总体呈上涨趋势,从95.6增长到134.8,年均增长7.1%;秋冬季节,蔬菜供给量全年最低,蔬菜价格上涨到最高水平;从产业链价格传递视角来看,全国蔬菜批发市场价格与集贸市场价格之间的价格传递具有非对称性,批发市场价格的波动将会导致下游集贸市场价格更大幅度的波动;蔬菜生产成本的推动、蔬菜生产的季节性、政府的宏观调控等是引起我国城市蔬菜价格波动出现以上特征的主要影响因素。In order to investigate the fluctuation of urban vegetable prices in China,and understand the main factors affecting vegetable price fluctuation,the residents consumer price index of fresh vegetables of 36 large and medium-sized cities was analyzed,and five vegetable varieties,Chinese cabbage,tomato,cucumber,eggplant,pepper were chosen to carry on the key inspection.Using X-12 seasonal adjustment model,the seasonal factor for the price of vegetables was released,and then using asymmetric error correction model（APT-ECM）,the asymmetric conduction of price of vegetables was verified,the markets price fluctuations of these 5kinds of vegetables were studied from the perspective of industry chain price transmission.Results showed that the national 36large and medium-sized urban residents of fresh vegetables in the consumer price index showed an upward trend in 2009—2014,from 95.6to 134.8with an annual increase of 7.1%;vegetable supply was at least in fall and winter seasons,vegetable price was the highest;from the industry chain price transmission point of view,between the national wholesale vegetable market prices and bazaars price transfer with non symmetry,the wholesale market price fluctuations would lead to downstream markets more significant price volatility;seasonal vegetable production cost push,vegetable production,the government′s macro-control were the main factors affecting the characteristics of city vegetable price fluctuation in China.

关 键 词：蔬菜价格 波动 鲜菜消费价格指数 非对称传导 产业链价格传导 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]