我国财政支农支出与农业经济增长——基于LMDI分解法的研究  

Empirical Research on the Relationship between Fiscal Expenditure on Agriculture and Agricultural Economic Growth in China:Based on LMDI Decomposition Method

作　　者：辛冲冲 陈志勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,430074

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2017年第3期78-86,共9页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"地方政府性债务管理和风险防范研究"(编号:12&ZD047)配套经费支持;教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目"高速城镇化背景下地方政府激进投资行为:效应评估及防范机制研究"(编号:14YJC790015)的资助

摘　　要：该文引入对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)用于财政支农支出对农业经济增长的驱动关系研究,并选取2000-2014年间我国31个省份的农业GDP和财政支农支出数据,构建农业GDP的总量分解模型,将财政支农支出影响农业GDP总量变动的总效应分解为活动效应、结构效应和效率效应三部分,进而比较分析。结果表明,财政支农支出的活动效应对农业GDP变动总效应的贡献最大;结构效应对农业GDP变动总效应的贡献不够显著且呈微弱负相关关系;效率效应对农业GDP变动总效应的贡献最小,并呈显著负相关关系。据此,该文提出进一步优化我国财政支农支出总量规模及地区结构配置,提升财政资金使用效率,以实现我国农业经济可持续、内涵式增长的政策建议。By the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method LMDI）, the paper selects the data of Agricultural GDP and financial input for agriculture in 31 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2014 and constructs a decomposition model of Agricultural GDP variation. The study divides the Agricultural GDP variation effects into agricultural activity effect, structural effect and the efficiency effect, and then analyzes and compares these effects. The results show that the agricultural activity effect contributes the most to the total effect of Agricultural GDP variation, while the structural effect on Agricultural GDP variation is insignificant with a rather weak negative correlation; the efficiency effect makes the least contribution and has a clear negative correlation with GDP growth. Accordingly, the paper puts forward some policy implications, such as further optimizing the regional and structural allocation of fiscal support for agriculture, and improving the capital efficiency for the sustainable as well as intensive development of agricultural economy in China.

关 键 词：支农财政支出 农业经济增长 LMDI 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]