人口流动、产业结构转变对上海市绿色GDP的影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Population Mobility and Industrial Structure Transformation upon Green GDP of Shanghai

作　　者：黄虹[1] 许祺[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234

出　　处：《中国软科学》2017年第4期94-108,共15页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373162);上海市会计学会重点项目(SHKJ2016ZD04)

摘　　要：绿色GDP作为扣除经济发展所引起的资源耗减成本和环境损失代价后的国内生产总值,克服了传统GDP在可持续发展度量方面存在的不足。本文采用绿色GDP作为衡量经济健康发展的指标,运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,分析上海市2000年-2014年人口流动、产业结构变动与绿色GDP的关系,又通过向量误差修正模型(VEC)研究上海市绿色经济增长对江、浙两省绿色经济增长的辐射效应。结果表明:人口流动在短时间内抑制了绿色GDP的发展,但长期看来这种影响将逐步消失;而人口流动在短期内提升产业结构转变,但随着时间推移人口结构稳定后,产业结构变动也稳定下来;另外,人口的流入对上海市绿色GDP增量的作用要大于产业结构变动对绿色GDP增量的作用。同时,上海市绿色经济增长对江、浙两省绿色经济的发展也起着正向的带动作用。Green GDP is the GDP obtained upon deducting cost of resource depletion and environmental damage caused by economic development, which is designed for overcoming deficiency of the traditional GDP in terms of sustainable development measurement. This paper uses green GDP instead of traditional GDP as a measure of green and healthy economic development, and makes research on the relationship among population mobility, industrial structure transformation and green GDP with structural vector auto regression （SVAR） model from 2000 to 2014 in Shanghai. At the same time, this paper uses the vector error correction model （VEC） to study Shanghai green economic growth in Yangtze River delta region of Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province green＇s in stimulating economic growth, The estimation results indicate that population mobility in a short time, inhibits the development of green GDP, but in the long run the effect will gradually disappear. And population mobility can promote industrial structure transformation in the short term. However, industrial structure transformation will be stabilized upon stability of population structure over time. In addition, Population mobility plays a more important role than industrial structure transformation in Shanghaigreen GDP increment.

关 键 词：绿色GDP 人口流动 产业机构 SVAR 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]