考虑决策者行为的新产品开发方案选择方法  

Alternative selection method for new product development considering behavior of decision makers

作　　者：于超[1,2,3] 樊治平[3] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学管理学院,沈阳110870 [2]沈阳工业大学机械工程学院,沈阳110870 [3]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110169

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期134-138,共5页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271051)

摘　　要：针对新产品开发方案选择问题,提出一种决策分析方法。在该方法中,以原产品成熟期的利润为参考点,基于前景理论,计算新产品研发成功情景下预期利润增量的前景价值和新产品研发失败情景下预期损失的前景价值,进一步地计算二者的决策权重,在此基础上计算各方案的综合前景值并对方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例对本文提出方法的实用性进行验证。Aiming at the selection of new product development p/an, a method of decision analysis is proposed. In this method, the profit of existing products in the mature period is regarded as the reference point. Base on prospect theory, the prospect values of the expected profit increment in the success scenario and the expected loss in the failure scenario of new product development are calculated, and the corresponding weights are calculated. Based on that, the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated and the ranking of alternatives is determined. Finally, the practicality of the proposed method is illustrated through an example.

关 键 词：新产品开发 决策者行为 前景理论 前景值 方案选择 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]