新疆及邻区M_S≥7.0地震时空对称性及趋势研究  

The Time-Space Symmetry and the Tendency Research of M_S≥7.0 Earthquake in Xinjiang and Its Neigbourhood Region

作　　者：肖美美[1] 延军平[2] 李光耀 

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062 [3]天津市滨海新区苏家园学校,天津300282

出　　处：《防灾减灾学报》2017年第1期24-31,共8页Journal of Disaster Prevention And Reduction

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"西部重大灾害时空规律的统计研究"(14AZD094)资助

摘　　要：对新疆及邻区1902—2014年间的M_S≥7.0级的强震数据,运用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图、地震震中对称结构等方法对该区域地震灾害的时空对称性规律进行了分析和总结。结果表明:新疆及邻区在2021年发生M_S≥7.0地震的信号较强,据蝴蝶结构图计算出2021年发生M_S≥7.0地震的概率为68.4%,不漏报置信水平为65%;未来地震震中可能向东北方向迁移,大致的空间位置在41.5oN以北,81oE以东。且地震集中分布在太阳黑子谷年附近,太阳活动目前正处于太阳黑子第24周期极大年附近,预计在2020年进入谷年。因此2021年新疆及邻区发生M_S≥7.0地震的概率很大。该区域地震与地球自转速度有一定的关系,在减速期发生地震的可能性较大,且速度转换持续时间越长越易发生地震。对丰富灾害学以及可公度法的探索具有一定价值。Based on Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes data of Xinjiang and its neighbourhood region from 1902 to 2014, this paper analyses and summarizes the rule of earthquake＇ s time-space symmetry in this area, by using methods like commensurable calculation, map of butterfly structure and earthquake commensurable structure. The results show that the seismic signal of Ms ≥ 7.0 is strong in 2021, and the butterfly structure diagram shows that the probability of occurrence ofMs ≥ 7.0 earthquake in 2021 is 68.4%, the no missing confidence level is 65%; the earthquake epicenter may move to the northeast region in the future, the general spatial position is in the north of 41.5°N and east of 81°E. It is also found that Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquake concentrate near the valley years of sunspots, the solar activity is in the 24th sunspots cycle which is near the Great Years, and maybe in the valley year in 2020. Therefore the possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Xinjiang and its adjacent region in 2021 is very strong. The earthquake of this region has a certain relationship with the rotation speed of the earth, and the possibility is higher in the deceleration phase, and the longer conversion, the more possible earthquakes happen. The research has value for enriching science of disaster and commensurability.

关 键 词：地震 新疆及邻区 时空对称性 可公度 太阳黑子 地球自转速度变化 

分 类 号：P315.01[天文地球—地震学]