基于前景理论的东北三省农户种养行为决策研究  

Study on the decision for the breeding behavior of farmers in the three provinces in Northeast China based on prospect theory

作　　者：李拓[1] 钱巍[1] 李翠霞[1] LI Tuo QIAN Wei LI Cuixia(College of Economies and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医（下半月）》2017年第4期1-5,9,共6页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于粮食安全的东北地区养殖业与粮食生产良性竞协发展机制研究”(71173035);中国博士后基金项目(2013M540267)

摘　　要：农户种养决策行为是种植业和畜牧业调整的微观基础,对于地区农业产业均衡至关重要,对于提高农民收入水平来讲意义重大,因此提出通俗易懂的标准使得农民能够自主地、科学地进行种养决策,可以有效促进农民增收,改善区域内农民收入水平偏低的现状。笔者基于前景理论建立农户风险决策模型,给出了农户种养行为选择的具体标准,避免了以往研究单纯分析影响因素的缺陷;通过对个体土地规模、劳动力数量、成本和收入等因素的分析,构建决策矩阵,计算综合前景值,得出不同因素水平的农户进行种养行为调整的适宜程度的顺序关系;最后通过算例,给出不同因素水平下,农户相对最优的决策方案,为政府引导农民进行种养选择、优化农业产业布局提供依据。Farmer decision - making behavior of planting and breeding is a micro - foundation for the adjustment of planting industry and animal husbandry, which is crucial for the balance of regional agricultural industry and of great significance to increasing the income level of farmers. Therefore, it makes farmers independent and scientific decision - making of planting and breeding to propose anunderstandable standard, which can effectively promote farmers to increase income and improve the low - income status of farmers in the region. The author establishes a risk decision - making model of farmers base on the prospect theory, and gives the specific criteria for the behavioral choices of planting and breeding of farmers to avoid the defects of previous studies only by analyzing the influencing factors. Through the analysis of individual land scale, the a- mount of labor, cost and income factors, the author constructs the decision matrix and calculates the value of comprehensive prospect gain to ob- tain the sequential relationship of the appropriate degree of planting behavior adjustment of the farmers with different factors and levels. Finally, the author gives a relative optimal decision - making plan for farmers under different factor levels through using an example, which provides a basis for the government to guide farmers for selection of planting and breeding and optimize the layout of agricultural industry.

关 键 词：东北三省 农户 种养行为 决策 前景理论 

分 类 号：S8-01[农业科学—畜牧兽医]