国际市场因素对我国大豆价格的传导效应分析  

Analysis on the Conduction Effect of International Market Factors on Soybean Prices in China

作　　者：聂娟[1] 王琴英[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院 [2]北京工商大学中国食品安全研究中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第2期112-115,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目:粮食安全目标下市场起决定作用的粮食价格形成机制研究(14ZDA034);北京市社科基金项目:北京文化创意产业发展效应研究(15JGA031);北京市社科基金项目:北京市出租车市场管制下的租金耗散与管制改革(14JGB029);北京市哲学社会科学基地项目:首都流通业研究基地(JD-YB-2017-014)

摘　　要：我国大豆主要价格与国际市场大豆价格的周期波动态势基本一致。国内大豆需求与供给对外依存度很高,我国大豆价格主要受国际市场因素传导所决定。统计显示,国际大豆价格与大宗商品价格均为国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因,但美元指数不是国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因。建立的V A R模型表明,国内大豆价格受滞后1-2期国际因素的传导作用,产生上涨与下跌的交替影响效应;对国际因素的脉冲响应显示,国内大豆价格对国际市场的短期冲击较为敏感,且来自国际大豆价格的冲击明显强于大宗商品价格的冲击。预计2017年我国大豆主要价格将处于小幅上升态势。The main soybean prices in China were consistent with cycle trends to soybean prices in the international market. Due to demand and supply for soybeans in China had a high ex- ternal dependence, domestic soybean market prices were mainly decided by conduction effect of international market factors. Statistics show that international soybean prices and commod- ity prices were Granger causes to domestic soybean prices, but dollar index were not Granger causes. The VAR model show that international factors of lag 1-2 periods had alternating rise and fall effects to domestic soybean prices. Impulse response of international factors revealed that the short-term impact of the international factors were sensitive on domestic soybean prices, and international soybean prices were stronger shocks than the impact of commodity prices. In 2017, the main soybean prices in China are expected to be slightly on the rise.

关 键 词：大豆价格 国际市场因素 美元指数 价格传导效应 大宗商品价格 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]