回首2015：人民币汇率市场的巨变之年  

Dramatic changes of RMB/FX market in 2015

作　　者：韩会师[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国建设银行总行金融市场部

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2015年第12期30-32,共3页China Money

摘　　要：回首2015年，人民币汇率市场可谓天翻地覆：升值预期消散、贬值预期抬头、境内外汇差扩大、结售汇高额顺差格局扭转、外汇储备大幅下跌等新情况令人目不暇接。汇市格局的变化既有市场化进程推进的必然性，也存在偶发因素导致的预期混乱现象。总结2015年，对于投资者稳健管理汇率风险和央行有效调控市场均具有积极意义。In 2015, RMB/FX market experiences upside-down： appreciation expectation fading away, depreciation expectation coming up, onshore/offshore spread expanding, large surplus of FX settlement and sale reversing, FX reserves falling sharply and so on. The changes in FX market are expectable during marketization process, and there are also incidental factors which cause different expectations. To sum up, the year 2015 carries significant impact on a sound management of exchange rate risk by investors and effective market adjustment by the central bank.

关 键 词：汇率市场 人民币 外汇储备 市场化进程 升值预期 贬值预期 混乱现象 偶发因素 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]