基于风险与绩效相关性的地方政府性债务管理研究  

Research on Local Government Debt Management Based on the Relation between Risk and Performance

作　　者：仲凡[1] Zhong Fan

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2017年第3期20-32,共13页Public Finance Research

摘　　要：本文利用综合指标体系评估2013年地方政府性债务风险,同时利用DEA方法评估2011-2013年地方政府性债务绩效。与按规模评价不同,本文认为地方政府性债务风险的区域差异性明显,大部分中部地区大而东部地区较小;从绩效看,债务的整体绩效在下降,且不存在明显的区域性。基于债务风险与绩效的相关性,将30个省份划分为四类,即:综合风险较高、使用绩效较高的地区;综合风险较高、使用绩效较低的地区;综合风险较低、使用绩效较高的地区;综合风险较低、使用绩效较低的地区。不同地区的债务管理重点与思路由于其风险与绩效特征不同而不同;财政部应根据地方政府在债务风险与债务绩效方面的表现,对地方政府的债务规模与新增债务限额进行动态管理,将新增限额在不同地区进行重新配置。鉴于绩效评估的滞后效应,可使用近2-3年的绩效评估平均值作为对债务动态管理的依据。This paper evaluates the risk and performance of local government debt by using the statistics method. The results show that the regional difference of local government debt risk is obvious with most of the central region bigger and the eastern region smaller. And the overall performance of the debt is declining whereas there is no obvious regional difference. Based on the relationship between debt risk and performance, 30 provinces are divided into four categories： high risk and high performance area; high risk and low performance area; low risk and high performance area; low risk and low performance area. The focus and method of debt management should match the performance and risk characteristics of these areas. According to the local government＇ s debt risk and debt performance, the financial management department should dynamically manage the debt scale and the new debt limit of local government, and reconfigure the debt limit in different areas. In view of the lag effect of performance evaluation, the performance evaluation result in the past 2-3 years can be used as the basis for the dynamic management of debt.

关 键 词：地方政府性债务 债务管理 债务风险 债务绩效 DEA 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]