基于马尔科夫的串联设计活动产品设计缺陷评估  

Product Design Defects Assessment in Series Design Activity Based on a Markov Process Approach

作　　者：郑慧萌[1,2] 刘卫东[1] 方明辉[2] ZHENG Hui-meng LIU Wei-dong FANG Ming-hui(The College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China Institute of Technology, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学机电工程学院,南昌330031 [2]湖州师范学院工学院,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《组合机床与自动化加工技术》2016年第9期157-160,共4页Modular Machine Tool & Automatic Manufacturing Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71161018);湖州师范学院科研项目(2014XJKY46)

摘　　要：为了有效管理产品设计缺陷,提出利用马尔科夫对设计活动产生的设计缺陷进行评估和预测。首先,从过程的角度分析每个设计活动的设计缺陷影响因素,构建设计缺陷影响因素矩阵。然后利用设计缺陷影响因素定义了产品设计缺陷的综合评价指标设计缺陷度,并由历史数据拟合了缺陷度和设计缺陷发生频率的关系,进而构建了基于马尔科夫的串联设计活动产品设计缺陷发生概率的评估预测模型。实际应用表明,该方法可用于串联设计活动的产品设计缺陷评估预测,从而为设计缺陷的控制管理提供有效支持。To effectively manage product design defects,this paper proposes an risk assessment model for design defects occurring in product development activity based on Markov process. First,with the method of process,influencing factors of product design defects in each design activity are analyzed,which will contribute to develop design defects influencing dimension matrix. Then,defects degrees are defined as a comprehensive evaluation index of design defects. The relationship between defect frequency and defects degrees is fitted according history datas. The probability of defect occurrences is assessed with Markov processes. A case study is also given in the paper to illustrate the utility of the method predicting the development process of product design defects which will offer effective support for control and management for product design defect.

关 键 词：串联设计 缺陷评估 缺陷度 马尔科夫过程 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论] TG506[金属学及工艺—金属切削加工及机床]