基于Apriori算法的连锁故障机理研究  

Esearch on the Mechanism of Cascading Failure based on Apriori Algorithm

作　　者：肖遥[1] 过羿[2] 谢佳[2] 石玮佳 王志鹍 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院,合肥230071 [2]国网安徽省电力公司检修公司,合肥230061

出　　处：《电力学报》2017年第1期22-27,69,共7页Journal of Electric Power

摘　　要：首先,分析了导致连锁故障扩大的主要因素,并根据影响因素定义了连锁故障事故链预测过程中线路的预测指标值;而且,每次预测时,用模糊均值聚类算法对所有线路预测指标值进行分类,选择指标值最大的一类线路为事故链预测时即将开断线路。其次,在得到连锁故障事故链集合的基础上,利用Apriori数据挖掘算法分析事故链集里面线路间的关联性,根据关联性分析的结果研究连锁故障的发生机理。最后,以IEEE14节点系统为例应用所提算法,进行了连锁故障事故链预测、线路关联性分析和连锁故障机理分析。First of all,the main factors leading to the expansion of cascading failures is analyzed.According to these factors,the line prediction index is defined;every forecast,all line prediction index value is classified by the clustering algorithm,the index value of the maximum of a class is chosen to be about to break the line.Secondly,on the basis of the collection of the accident chain,the correlation between the lines is analyzed by using Apriori algorithm.And the mechanism of cascading failures is studied.In this paper,we take the IEEE14 node system as an example to calculate and analyze the prediction and correlation of the two systems.

关 键 词：连锁故障 事故链 关联性分析 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]