纵向岭谷区大围山国家级自然保护区气候变化特点及预测  

Climate Change Characteristics and Prediction Dawei Mountain National Nature Reserve of Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region

作　　者：程清平[1] 王平[1] 莫明忠 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650092 [2]红河州林业局,云南蒙自661100

出　　处：《人民珠江》2017年第4期1-7,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41261007)

摘　　要：利用大围山国家级保护区1960—2014年气温和降水量数据,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法分析了该保护区55 a来气温和降水量变化特征及影响因素,并对未来变化趋势做出预测。结果显示:55 a来该保护区年、春、夏、秋、冬季平均气温均呈显著的上升趋势,年、夏季降水量呈不显著的减少趋势、秋季降水量呈显著的减少趋势,春、冬季降水量呈不显著的增加趋势。小波分析和R/S分析表明年和各季气温未来一段时间内将呈上升趋势,而年、夏、秋季降水量将呈减少趋势,春、冬季降水量将呈增加趋势。The using temperature and precipitation data in Dawei Mountain from 1960 to 2014, The linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, R/S analysis method are used toanalyze temperature and precipitation change characteristics and influencing factors of the past 55 years, at the same time make prediction about the future trend. Results show that the annual, spring,summer, autumn, winter annual average temperature areobviously rising and annual,summer precipitation show a trend of not significantly decrease, autumn precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend, the spring and winter is not significant increase trend. The wavelet analysis and R/S analysis show that annual and seasonal temperatures in the future a period of time will be on the rise, and annual, summer, autumn precipitation will have decreasing trend, spring and winter precipitation will be increased.

关 键 词：气温和降水量 变化特征 影响因素 预测 大围山自然保护区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]