我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率的时间趋势分析  

Time-series anaylsis of malaria incidence in China during 2004-2013

作　　者：徐俊芳[1] 夏志贵[2] 周晓农[2] 李石柱[2] 郭孝鹏[1] 覃思[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北民族学院医学院,恩施445000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,世界卫生组织热带病合作中心,科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,上海200025

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2017年第2期114-119,共6页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.NSFC81273192)~~

摘　　要：目的对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行时间趋势分析,阐明我国疟疾发病的趋势。方法应用Joinpoint软件对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行Joinpoint模型分析,并计算年度变化百分比(APC);同时应用灰色建模系统软件进行灰色关联分析。结果疟疾总发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为34.8%(P>0.05)和-37.9%(P<0.05);间日疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2007年,APC分别为14.7%(P<0.05)和-51.5%(P<0.05);恶性疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2009年,APC分别为-39.6%(P<0.05)和-25.9%(P>0.05);未分型疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为31.7%(P>0.05)和-40.7%(P<0.05)。间日疟、恶性疟和未分型疟疾的发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度依次为0.887 7、0.625 4、0.844 5。本地疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2008年,APC分别为2.43%(P>0.05)和-72.89%(P<0.05),本地疟疾发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度为0.969 3结论我国疟疾总发病率、本地疟疾发病率、间日疟发病率和未分型疟疾发病率均呈明显下降趋势。2004-2009年恶性疟发病率呈下降趋势,2009-2013年恶性疟发病率保持平稳。Objective To estimate the trend of malaria incidence in China from 2004 to 2013 and clarify the pattern of malaria prevalence. Methods The malaria incidence trend during 2004-2013 was analyzed with the Joinpoint software to calculate the annual percent change （APC）. Grey relational analysis was also performed. Results The joinpoint for the overall prevalence of malaria was found in 2006, with APC of 34.8% （P 〉 0.05） and -37.9%（P〈0.05）, respectively. The joinpoint for vivax malaria was found in 2007, with APC of 14.7% （P 〈 0.05） and -51.5% （P 〈 0.05）, respectively. The joinpoint for falciparum malaria was in 2009, with APC of -39.6% （P 〈 0.05） and -25.9% （P 〉 0.05）, respectively. The joinpoint for unclassified malaria was in 2006, with APC of 31.7% （P 〉 0.05） and -40.7% （P 〈 0.05）, respectively. The comprehensive correlation degrees of vivax malaria, falciparum malaria and unclassified malaria incidence with the overall prevalence of 0.887 7, 0.625 4, and 0.844 5, respectively. The joinpoint for indigenous malaria incidence was in 2008, with APC of 2.43% （P 〉 0.05） and -72.89% （P〈0.05）, respectively. The comprehensive correlation degree between indigenous malaria incidence and the overall prevalence was 0.969 3. Conclusion There is a trend of decrease for overall prevalence, as well as for the incidences of indigenous malaria, vivax malaria, and unclassified malaria. The incidence of falciparum malaria was a trend of decrease from 2004 to 2009, but was steady from 2009 to 2013.

关 键 词：疟疾 时间趋势分析 Joinpoint模型 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]